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Preparing For World War 3
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Preparing for World War III, Targeting Iran
Part I: Global Warfare
by Michel Chossudovsky
Humanity is at a dangerous crossroads. War preparations to attack Iran are in "an advanced state of readiness". Hi tech weapons systems including nuclear warheads are fully deployed.
This military adventure has been on the Pentagon's drawing board since the mid-1990s. First Iraq, then Iran according to a declassified 1995 US Central Command document.
Escalation is part of the military agenda. While Iran, is the next target together with Syria and Lebanon, this strategic military deployment also threatens North Korea, China and Russia.
Since 2005, the US and its allies, including America's NATO partners and Israel, have been involved in the extensive deployment and stockpiling of advanced weapons systems. The air defense systems of the US, NATO member countries and Israel are fully integrated.
This is a coordinated endeavor of the Pentagon, NATO, Israel's Defense Force (IDF), with the active military involvement of several non-NATO partner countries including the frontline Arab states (members of NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative), Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia, among others. (NATO consists of 28 NATO member states Another 21 countries are members of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), The Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative include ten Arab countries plus Israel.)
The roles of Egypt, the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia (within the extended military alliance) is of particular relevance. Egypt controls the transit of war ships and oil tankers through the Suez Canal. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States occupy the South Western coastlines of the Persian Gulf, the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. In early June, "Egypt reportedly allowed one Israeli and eleven U.S. ships to pass through the Suez Canal in ....an apparent signal to Iran. ... On June 12, regional press outlets reported that the Saudis had granted Israel the right to fly over its airspace..." (Muriel Mirak Weissbach, Israel’s Insane War on Iran Must Be Prevented., Global Research, July 31, 2010)
In post 9/11 military doctrine, this massive deployment of military hardware has been defined as part of the so-called "Global War on Terrorism", targeting "non-State" terrorist organizations including al Qaeda and so-called "State sponsors of terrorism",. including Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan.
The setting up of new US military bases, the stockpiling of advanced weapons systems including tactical nuclear weapons, etc. were implemented as part of the pre-emptive defensive military doctrine under the umbrella of the "Global War on Terrorism".
War and the Economic Crisis
The broader implications of a US-NATO Israel attack on Iran are far-reaching. The war and the economic crisis are intimately related. The war economy is financed by Wall Street, which stands as the creditor of the US administration. The US weapons producers are the recipients of the US Department of Defense multibillion dollar procurement contracts for advanced weapons systems. In turn, "the battle for oil" in the Middle East and Central Asia directly serves the interests of the Anglo-American oil giants.
The US and its allies are "beating the drums of war" at the height of a Worldwide economic depression, not to mention the most serious environmental catastrophe in World history. In a bitter twist, one of the major players (BP) on the Middle East Central Asia geopolitical chessboard, formerly known as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, is the instigator of the ecological disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
Media Disinformation
Public opinion, swayed by media hype is tacitly supportive, indifferent or ignorant as to the likely impacts of what is upheld as an ad hoc "punitive" operation directed against Iran's nuclear facilities rather than an all out war. War preparations include the deployment of US and Israeli produced nuclear weapons. In this context, the devastating consequences of a nuclear war are either trivialised or simply not mentioned.
The "real crisis" threatening humanity, according to the media and the governments, is not war but global warming. The media will fabricate a crisis where there is no crisis: "a global scare" -- the H1N1 global pandemic-- but nobody seems to fear a US sponsored nuclear war.
The war on Iran is presented to public opinion as an issue among others. It is not viewed as a threat to "Mother Earth" as in the case of global warming. It is not front-page news. The fact that an attack on Iran could lead to escalation and potentially unleash a "global war" is not a matter of concern.
The Cult of Killing and Destruction
The global killing machine is also sustained by an imbedded cult of killing and destruction which pervades Hollywood movies, not to mention the prime time war and crime TV series on network television. This cult of killing is endorsed by the CIA and the Pentagon which also support (finance) Hollywood productions as an instrument of war propaganda:
"Ex-CIA agent Bob Baer told us, "There’s a symbiosis between the CIA and Hollywood" and revealed that former CIA director George Tenet is currently, "out in Hollywood, talking to studios." (Matthew Alford and Robbie Graham, Lights, Camera… Covert Action: The Deep Politics of Hollywood, Global Research, January 31, 2009).
The killing machine is deployed at a global level, within the framework of the unified combat command structure. It is routinely upheld by the institutions of government, the corporate media and the mandarins and intellectuals of the New World Order in Washington's think tanks and strategic studies research institutes, as an unquestioned instrument of peace and global prosperity.
A culture of killing and violence has become imbedded in human consciousness.
War is broadly accepted as part of a societal process: The Homeland needs to be "defended" and protected.
"Legitimized violence" and extrajudicial killings directed against "terrorists" are upheld in western democracies, as necessary instruments of national security.
A "humanitarian war" is upheld by the so-called international community. It is not condemned as a criminal act. Its main architects are rewarded for their contributions to world peace.
With regard to Iran, what is unfolding is the outright legitimization of war in the name of an illusive notion of global security.
A "Pre-emptive" Aerial attack directed against Iran would lead to Escalation
At present there are three separate Middle East Central Asia war theaters: Iraq, Af-Pak, and Palestine.
Were Iran to be the object of a "pre-emptive" aerial attack by allied forces, the entire region, from the Eastern Mediterranean to China's Western frontier with Afghanistan and Pakistan, would flare up, leading us potentially into a World War III scenario.
The war would also extend into Lebanon and Syria.
It is highly unlikely that the bombings, if they were to be implemented, would be circumscribed to Iran's nuclear facilities as claimed by US-NATO official statements. What is more probable is an all out air attack on both military and civilian infrastructure, transport systems, factories, public buildings.
Iran, with an an estimated ten percent of global oil and gas reserves, ranks third after Saudi Arabia (25 %) and Iraq (11 %) in the size of its reserves. In comparison, the US possesses less than 2.8 % of global oil reserves. The oil reserves of the U.S. are estimated at less than 20 billion barrels. The broader region of the Middle East and Central Asia have oil reserves which are more than thirty times those of the U.S, representing more than 60% of the World's total reserves. (See Eric Waddell, The Battle for Oil, Global Research, December 2004).
Of significance is the recent discovery in Iran of the second largest known reserves of natural gas at Soumar and Halgan estimated at 12.4 trillion cubic feet.
Targeting Iran consists not only in reclaiming Anglo-American control over Iran's oil and gas economy, including pipeline routes, it also challenges the presence and influence of China and Russia in the region.
Map of Middle East
The planned attack on Iran is part of a coordinated global military road map. It is part of the Pentagon's "long war", a profit driven war without borders, a project of World domination, a sequence of military operations.
US-NATO military planners have envisaged various scenarios of military escalation. They are also acutely aware of the geopolitical implications, namely that the war could extend beyond the Middle East Central Asia region. The economic impacts on the oil markets, etc. have also been analyzed.
While Iran, Syria and Lebanon are the immediate targets, China, Russia, North Korea, not to mention Venezuela and Cuba are also the object of US threats.
At stake is the structure of military alliances. US-NATO-Israel military deployments including military exercises and drills conducted on Russia and China's immediate borders bear a direct relationship to the proposed war on Iran. These veiled threats, including their timing, constitute an obvious hint to the former powers of the Cold War era not to intervene in any way which could encroach upon a US-led attack on Iran.
Global Warfare
The medium term strategic objective is to target Iran and neutralize Iran's allies, through gunboat diplomacy. The longer term military objective is to directly target China and Russia.
While Iran is the immediate target, military deployment is by no means limited to the Middle East and Central Asia. A global military agenda has been formulated.
The deployment of coalition troops and advanced weapons systems by the US, NATO and its partners is occurring simultaneously in all major regions of the World.
The recent actions of the US military off the coast of North Korea including the conduct of war games are part of a global design.
Directed primarily against Russia and China, US, NATO and allied military exercises, war drills, weapons deployments, etc. are being conducted simultaneously in major geopolitical hotspots.
-The Korean Peninsula, the Sea of Japan, the Taiwan Straits, the South China Sea threatening China,
-The deployment of Patriot missiles in Poland, the early warning center in the Czech republic threatening Russia,
-Naval deployments in Bulgaria, Romania on the Black sea, threatening Russia
- US and NATO troops deployments in Georgia,
- A formidable naval deployment in the Persian Gulf including Israeli submarines directed against Iran.
Concurrently the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Caribbean, Central America and the Andean region of South America are areas of ongoing militarization. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the threats are directed against Venezuela and Cuba.
US "Military Aid"
In turn, large scale weapons transfers have been undertaken under the banner of US "military aid" to selected countries, including a 5 billion dollar arms deal with India which is intended to build India's capabilities directed against China. (Huge U.S.-India Arms Deal To Contain China, Global Times, July 13, 2010).
"[The] arms sales will improve ties between Washington and New Delhi, and, intentionally or not, will have the effect of containing China’s influence in the region.” quoted in Rick Rozoff, Confronting both China and Russia: U.S. Risks Military Clash With China In Yellow Sea, Global Research, July 16, 2010)
The US has military cooperation agreements with a number of South East Asian countries including Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia, involving "military aid" as well as the participation in U.S.-led war games in the Pacific Rim (July -August 2010). These agreements are supportive of weapons deployments directed against The People's Republic of China. (See Rick Rozoff, Confronting both China and Russia: U.S. Risks Military Clash With China In Yellow Sea, Global Research, July 16, 2010).
Similarly and more directly related to the planned attack on Iran, the US is arming the Gulf States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates) with land-based interceptor missiles, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) as well as sea-based Standard Missile-3 interceptors installed on Aegis class warships in the Persian Gulf. (See Rick Rozoff, NATO’s Role In The Military Encirclement Of Iran, Global Research, February 10, 2010).
The Timetable of Military Stockpiling and Deployment
What is crucial in regards to US weapons transfers to partner countries and allies is the actual timing of delivery and deployment. The launch of a US sponsored military operation would normally occur once these weapons systems are in place, effectively deployed with the implementation of personnel training. (e.g India).
What we are dealing with is a carefully coordinated global military design controlled by the Pentagon, involving the combined armed forces of more than forty countries. This global multinational military deployment is by far the largest display of advanced weapons systems in World history.
In turn, the US and its allies have established new military bases in different parts of the world. "The Surface of the Earth is Structured as a Wide Battlefield". (See Jules Dufour, The Worldwide Network of US Military Bases , Global Research, July 1, 2007).
The Unified Command structure divided up into geographic Combatant Commands is predicated on a strategy of militarization at the global level. "The US Military has bases in 63 countries. Brand new military bases have been built since September 11, 2001 in seven countries. In total, there are 255,065 US military personnel deployed Worldwide." (See Jules Dufour, The Worldwide Network of US Military Bases , Global Research, July 1, 2007
Map-the World With Commander' Area of Responsibility
Source: DefenseLINK-Unified Command Plan
World War III Scenario
This military deployment is occurring in several regions simultaneously under the coordination of the regional US Commands, involving the stockpiling of US made weapons systems by America's allies, some of which are former enemies, including Vietnam and Japan.
The present context is characterised by a global military build-up controlled by one World superpower, which is using its numerous allies to trigger regional wars.
In contrast to the Second World War was a conjunction of separate regional war theaters. Given the communications technologies and weapons systems of the 1940s, there was no strategic "real time" coordination in military actions between broad geographic regions
Global warfare is based on the coordinated deployment of a single dominant military power, which oversees the actions of its allies and partners.
With the exception of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Second World War was characterized by the use of conventional weapons. The planning of a global war relies on the militarization of outer space. Were a war directed against iran to be launched, It would not only use nuclear weapons, the entire gamut of new advanced weapons systems, including electrometric weapons and environmental modification techniques (ENMOD) would be used.
The United Nations Security Council
The UN Security Council adopted in early June a fourth round of sweeping sanctions against The Islamic Republic of Iran, which included an expanded arms embargo as well "tougher financial controls". In a bitter irony, this resolution was passed within days of the United Nations Secrity Council's outright refusal to adopt a motion condemning Israel for its attack on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla in international waters.
Both China and Russia, pressured by the US, have endorsed the UNSC sanctions' regime, to their own detriment. Their decision within the UNSC contributes to weakening their own military alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO), in which Iran has observer status. The Security Council resolution freezes China and Russia's respective bilateral military cooperation and trade agreements with Iran. It has serious repercussions on Iran's air defense system which in part depends on Russian technology and expertise.
The Security Council resolution grants a de facto "green light" to wage a pre-emptive war against Iran.
The American Inquisition: Building a Political Consensus for War
In chorus, the Western media has branded Iran as a threat to global security in view of its alleged (non-existent) nuclear weapons program. Echoing official statements, the media is now demanding the implementation of punitive bombings directed against Iran so as to safeguard Israel's security.
The Western media is beating the drums of war. The purpose is to tacitly instil, through repeated media reports, ad nauseam, within people's inner consciousness, the notion that the Iranian threat is real and that the Islamic Republic should be "taken out".
A consensus building process to wage war is similar to the Spanish inquisition. It requires and demands submission to the notion that war is a humanitarian endeavor.
Known and documented, the real threat to global security emanates from the US-NATO-Israel alliance, yet realities in an inquisitorial environment are turned upside down: the warmongers are committed to peace, the victims of war are presented as the protagonists of war. Whereas in 2006, almost two thirds of Americans were opposed to military action against Iran, a recent Reuter-Zogby February 2010 poll suggests that 56 % of Americans favor a US-NATO military action against Iran.
Building a political consensus which is based on an outright lie cannot, however, rely solely on the official position of those who are the source of the lie.
The antiwar movement in the US, which has in part been infiltrated and co-opted, has taken on a weak stance with regard to Iran. The antiwar movement is divided. The emphasis has been on wars which have already occurred (Afghanistan, Iraq) rather than forcefully opposing wars which are being prepared and which are currently on the Pentagon's drawing board. Since the inauguration of the Obama administration, the antiwar movement has lost some of its impetus.
Moreover, those who actively oppose the wars on Afghanistan and Iraq, do not necessarily oppose the conduct of "punitive bombings" directed Iran, nor do they categorize these bombings as an act of war, which could potentially be a prelude to World War III.
The scale of antiwar protest in relation to Iran has been minimal in comparison to the mass demonstrations which preceded the 2003 bombing and invasion of Iraq.
The real threat to global security emanates from the US-NATO-Israel alliance.
The Iran operation is not being opposed in the diplomatic arena by China and Russia; it has the support of the governments of the frontline Arab states which are integrated into the NATO sponsored Mediterranean dialogue. It also has the tacit support of Western public opinion.
We call upon people across the land, in America, Western Europe, Israel, Turkey and around the world to rise up against this military project, against their governments which are supportive of military action against Iran, against the media which serves to camouflage the devastating implications of a war against Iran.
The military agenda support a profit driven destructive global economic system which impoverishes large sectors of the world population.
This war is sheer madness.
World War III is terminal. Albert Einstein understood the perils of nuclear war and the extinction of life on earth, which has already started with the radioactive contamination resulting from depleted uranium. “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
The media, the intellectuals, the scientists and the politicians, in chorus, obfuscate the untold truth, namely that war using nuclear warheads destroys humanity, and that this complex process of gradual destruction has already commenced.
When the lie becomes the truth there is no turning backwards.
When war is upheld as a humanitarian endeavor, Justice and the entire international legal system are turned upside down: pacifism and the antiwar movement are criminalized. Opposing the war becomes a criminal act.
The Lie must be exposed for what it is and what it does.
It sanctions the indiscriminate killing of men, women and children.
It destroys families and people. It destroys the commitment of people towards their fellow human beings.
It prevents people from expressing their solidarity for those who suffer. It upholds war and the police state as the sole avenue.
It destroys internationalism.
Breaking the lie means breaking a criminal project of global destruction, in which the quest for profit is the overriding force.
This profit driven military agenda destroys human values and transforms people into unconscious zombies.
Let us reverse the tide.
Challenge the war criminals in high office.
Break the American inquisition.
Undermine the US-NATO-Israel military crusade.
Close down the weapons factories and the military bases.
Bring home the troops.
Members of the armed forces should disobey orders and refuse to participate in a criminal war.
Part II of this essay will be published shortly.
Preparing for World War III. Nature and History of the Planned Military Operation against Iran
Includes analysis of the role if Israel
Michel Chossudovsky is an award-winning author, Professor of Economics (Emeritus) at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He is the author of The Globalization of Poverty and The New World Order (2003) and America’s “War on Terrorism” (2005). He is also a contributor to the Encyclopaedia Britannica. His writings have been published in more than twenty languages.
General Hamid Gul points to "dark impulse" controlling US system
Steve Watson
Infowars.net
Tuesday, Aug 17th, 2010
- Global clique, an "ultra-Imperial club" shaping world affairs
- Destabilization exercise known as 'war on terror' could lead to
World War Three
- All of Islamic world could be provocateured into "international jihad"
- 9/11 was a fabricated pretext to dominate the middle east and beyond
- Intelligence claims exposed by Wikileaks are "diabolical nonsense"
Former Pakistani General and intelligence chief Hamid Gul appeared on the Alex Jones Show yesterday for a full hour in what turned out to be a fascinating extended interview, addressing the major geopolitical issues that are shaping modern history.
Gul, who served as the director general of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence during 1987-89 and worked with the CIA in the covert war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, is a wealth of knowledge on the so called 'war on terror'.
Gul spoke on a host of issues, beginning with his version of events surrounding the recent Wikileaks expose of US and Afghan military intelligence.
"My version (of events) is not going out to America, I've been denied the visa to travel to America. These people will not let me into America because they are afraid that I will speak the truth. People will listen to the truth..." Gul stated in response to the claims that he is personally "quarter backing" attacks on US forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"Fareed Zakaria (of CNN), he recorded me for twenty minutes and he put out only six minutes of my version." Gul continued.
"That is not fair, because I was informed, and especially the things I said which were stark realities, and he wanted obviously to keep the American people in dark about these things."
Gul asserted that Afghan intelligence is "still infested by the old Communist die hards", who have an axe to grind against him, owing to his role in ousting the Soviet Union from the region. Gul added that it is a ridiculous notion to believe that he, at 74 years of age and retired, has any role in the military failures of the US in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
"Speak the truth, you have failed because your own policy makers have not come up with the recipe that was required. Your own Generals were not up to the tasks which were given to them, so why don't you accept the failure rather than rub the blame on someone else?" he said.
"This is diabolical nonsense, and if this is the kind of intelligence that America is basing its policies on in this region, then God help America. This is false, it is totally fabricated and I'll tell you who are the elements involved in it." Gul said.
The retired General blamed the fact that the military is heavily dependent on private contractors, even for intelligence gathering - contractors who only have an incentive to expand the wars and further profit from them.
"How can they be so foolish, the CIA, the FBI, and to top it all there is this Task Force 373, which has been indulging in massive civilian casualties. They have been killing people left right and centre. Every time they are given the information, they have bombed wedding parties, they have bombed funeral processions, they have bombed innocents, and they have even bombed the hospitals."
"So you can imagine that the intelligence based on the information provided by security contractors has resulted in this massive violation of human rights, it has been anti-human, it has destroyed everything that the American people and the American Constitution ever stood for." Gul urged.
"They think that anyone criticizing their policy is the enemy. This is totally wrong, this is a misconception. We work together with the CIA, we work together with the Americans, I have a lot of friends there, I respect them and my advice could also be useful." Gul said.
The former ISI chief, who trained with British intelligence officers, spoke of an "ultra-Imperial club" of British, Israeli and Indian intelligence that is "leading American policy making by the nose" and "does not want America to flourish inside their hearts".
"The American people are exploited for this dark agenda. It is only a handful of people, they a clique only by my assessment, who are indulging in this exercise." Gul added.
Gul also noted that the real agenda in the middle east is multifaceted.
Gul says the global clique's 'war on terror' on one hand allows for the corporate empire that now controls America to establish itself in the centre of the region to tap the Caspian oil basin. Secondly, Gul believes it is an operation to prevent China from moving into the region. Thirdly, it functions to prevent any new power from emerging in the region based on the Islamic principles of egalitarianism, equality and freedom.
"If these principles are adopted then Imperial powers will really have no place to hide." Gul stated.
And finally, it seeks to provide a security shield to the State of Israel by promoting destabilization inside neighbouring countries.
"This is going to hurt them more than it is going to hurt us." Gul said, speaking of how the actions of the global cabal are running against the grain of ancient codes of honour for the people of the region.
"This evokes even stronger sentiments than the religion," Gul stated. "Therefore these people are not going to forgive all this, and I'm afraid that we will have lost this region forever to America, to the West... and this struggle is going to end with a very big disaster for American reputation, for their honour, for their self respect, and we don't want to have this done, I can assure you I am genuinely telling you this." Gul added.
"If they get embroiled in Pakistan they will keep on staying here for a long time. If they expand this war, a fight is going to be put up against America, whether in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iran. The larger the area of conflict and the longer the period of conflict, the established power, the one that is equipped with more firepower, cannot win - this is a lesson from history - it is immutable."
"My fear is that if Pakistan is put to the corner and pushed against the wall - Pakistan being an Islamic state - could also declare international jihad." Gul noted with great trepidation.
"Now if that Islamic state declares international jihad, it becomes binding on the muslims of the rest of the world to come out in support of jihad. It will change modern history altogether if that call is given."
"They would have us believe that Iran is our enemy. Iran is not our enemy. There has been no hostility between Iran and Pakistan... This is an utter lie, it is only to malign Iran. But I tell you Israel is hell bent to draw America into a wider war attacking Iran. If they go in unilaterally to attack some targets, even drop a few bombs here and there, I think it will flare up a conflict that it will not be able to control." Gul stated, following up with a harrowing prediction of what will follow.
"America is likely to get sucked into this war, and this may turn out to be the third world war. It would be a disaster of the first order, it must be avoided at all costs."
"I don't know if Russia or China could be held back. This could be an inferno that would consume so many things, and corporate America would be the biggest sufferer - where are they going to sell their gold and how are they going to pick up the oil?" Gul stated.
The General urged that if the world is to avoid such devastating conflict, people everywhere must not accept the propaganda being thrown at them by the elite clique attempting to shape global affairs.
"There is no clash of civilizations, this is a mindset that has been created unfortunately. ...As far as Islam is concerned, why is it being looked upon as an enemy, as an adversary? Islam encompasses Christianity and Judaism, it is not an entity in itself, but actually it encompasses all the three religions of the book, so there has to be amicable peace among us."
"There is no need for the dark impulse in the American system. I won't say the American people, because they are so good, it is in the American system that the dark impulse has to be removed - and it can only be removed by the American people."
Gul previously appeared on the Alex Jones show to share his contention that the 9/11 attack was an inside job, laying out details that were censored during a CNN interview on the same week.
Gul reiterated his stance on the 9/11 attacks, that it was a black operation to be used as a pretext for entering Afghanistan and using it as a launch pad to enter Pakistan and dominate the region.
Gul also spoke about the evidence that the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks were a Western controlled intelligence operation that was to be blamed on Pakistan, a claim he made shortly after the attacks which has since been vindicated by mainstream reports that US and Indian undercover agents were involved in the attacks.
The General also spoke on the death of former Pakistan leader Benazir Bhutto, reasserting his previous analysis that Bhutto was eliminated by a neocon controlled assassination squad after she "became rebellious" toward globalist interests.
Watch this groundbreaking interview in full below:
Steve Watson is the London based writer and webmaster at Alex Jones' Infowars.net, and regular contributor to Prisonplanet.com. He has a Masters Degree in International Relations from the School of Politics at The University of Nottingham in England.
THE BUSHEHR nuclear plant in southern Iran
By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER
08/17/2010 18:24
Bolton: Russia to load fuel into reactor on Saturday.
Talkbacks (92)
WASHINGTON – Israel has only mere days to launch an attack on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor if Russia makes good on its plan to deliver fuel there this weekend, former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton warned Tuesday.
He said that once Russia has loaded the fuel into the reactor -- slated for Saturday – Israel would no longer be willing to strike for fear of triggering widespread radiation in an attack.
“This is a very, very big victory for Iran,” Bolton told The Jerusalem
Post. “This is a huge threshold.”
Bolton, who also once oversaw US non-proliferation policy, said that
when Russia announced the plans to load the fuel last Friday, “the
element of surprise was essentially taken away” from Israeli
calculations.
Bolton noted that he doesn’t “have a clue” as to whether Israel would
actually attack, but he said, “If Israel was right to destroy the Osiraq
reactor, is it right to allow this one to continue? You can’t have it both
ways.”
Israel took out Iraq’s Osiraq reactor during a stealth mission in 1981. It is
also believed to have conducted a similar strike on an alleged Syria nuclear
site in 2007.
Russia signed a contract with Iran to construct the Bushehr reactor in 1995, but has several times delayed completion. In announcing the long-overdue fuel installation, which should make Bushehr operational in September, Russia did not indicate why it was going ahead with the final stages now.
In addition to Bushehr -- for which Russia says it has guarantees it will receive back the spent fuel, the material needed to make a nuclear bomb -- Iran has its own uranium enrichment facilities.
Iran expert Ilan Berman of the American Foreign Policy Council said that the uranium enrichment plants are the real backbone of Iranian efforts and expenditures to get a nuclear weapons capability, and he suspected that they, rather than Bushehr, would be Israel’s primary targets in any attack.
He suggested that Bolton was setting up a “straw man” by focusing on the fuel delivery to the Bushehr reactor.
“It’s not at all clear that Bushehr would be a high value target because it’s only tangentially related to any conceivable Iranian nuclear weapons program,” he said. “My suspicion is this isn’t a game changer. This isn’t going to give Iran enough fissile material for a bomb overnight.”
Berman added that since Bushehr is the most public Iranian nuclear facility, and therefore well monitored by international inspectors, it was also a less likely candidate for use by Iran to construct a bomb, though he nevertheless said if it became operational it would be “an enormous PR coup for the Iranians.”
Bolton dismissed the idea that international inspectors would contain the threat from the Bushehr reactor, pointing to instances inspectors had been kicked out.
He also said it was unlikely that Israel would attack Bushehr now and make another sortie against the enrichment facilities in later months because that would be a much more challenging task. For one thing, he point out that an attack on Bushehr would likely spur the Russians to transfer to Iran advanced missile defense systems it has agreed to sell Tehran but refrained from actually delivering.
Instead, Bolton indicated, if Israel were to attack now it would probably hit multiple targets.
Iran, for its part, dismissed talk of a possible Israel strike.
On Tuesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted as saying that "these threats of attacks had become repetitive and lost their meaning." He also reportedly told correspondents in Tehran, "According to international law, installations which have real fuel cannot be attacked because of the humanitarian consequences.”
The rhetoric comes as the US increased sanctions on Iran as part of its ongoing efforts to ratchet up pressure on Tehran.
On Tuesday the US Treasury announced dozens of additional names of Iranian banks and individuals that fall under sanctions law.
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